The Outlook for Business Sales This Year

by Hugo Martin 5th of May, 2026

The Outlook for Business Sales This Year

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” Charles Dickens

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” The few observations capture the current outlook for business sales more accurately than Charles Dickens’ famous line. As we move through 2026, the market for buying and selling businesses sits at the intersection of opportunity and uncertainty, shaped heavily by global geopolitics, inflationary pressures, and changing investor sentiment.

On one hand, this is undeniably a period of disruption. The escalating conflict in the Middle East has triggered a concerning rise in oil prices, with Brent Crude passing US$110 per barrel and, possibly, remaining elevated for years.

The economic consequences are already materialising. Rising fuel costs are feeding directly into inflation, with forecasts suggesting headline inflation could increase and potentially exceed 5% in the near term. The Reserve Bank of Australia, under its mandate has already responded with higher interest rates in an effort to contain these pressures.

For business owners and buyers, this creates the “winter of despair” Dickens spoke of. Higher borrowing costs reduce acquisition capacity, reassessed valuations, and make funding deals more challenging and complex. Increased operating costs, particularly in transport, logistics, construction, agriculture and hospitality place additional pressure on margins. Consumer sentiment, already fragile, is being tested further by rising living costs and economic uncertainty.

Yet, paradoxically, this environment is also the “spring of hope.”

Periods of volatility often stimulate action. Many business owners, having navigated years of disruption, including pandemic to inflation to geopolitical shocks are reassessing their long-term position. For some, the decision to sell becomes clearer: crystallise value now, de- risk future uncertainty, and transition while performance remains strong.

Equally, sophisticated buyers are engaging, not stepping back. Private investors, and strategic buyers understand that uncertainty creates pricing opportunities. Businesses that are well-positioned with strong cash flow, recurring revenue, and defensible market positions remain highly sought after. In fact, mandatory or recurring revenue models (such as essential services, compliance-driven industries, and contracted income streams) are becoming even more attractive in this climate.

There is also an “age of wisdom” emerging in the sales process itself. Buyers are more disciplined, undertaking deeper due diligence, and placing greater emphasis on resilience rather than pure growth. Sellers, in turn, are having be better prepared with clean financials, clear narratives, and a compelling value proposition that withstands scrutiny.

So where does this leave the outlook for business sales in 2026?

In simple terms: active, but selective.

Deals will continue to transact, particularly where businesses demonstrate:

Strong and consistent cash flow
Pricing power to manage inflation
Low reliance on volatile input costs
Clear growth pathways or scalability

However, the gap between high-quality and average businesses will widen. Premium assets will command strong multiples; underperforming or poorly prepared businesses may struggle to achieve expectations.

Dickens’ words remind us that contrasting forces often coexist. In today’s market, uncertainty and opportunity are not opposites, they are intertwined. For those who understand this dynamic, who prepare strategically and act decisively, 2026 may prove not just a challenging year for business sales, but an exceptionally rewarding one.

Tags: business owner small business tips